Wednesday, 18 January 2017

LOAD FORECASTING - ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM

Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric industry in the deregulated economy. It has many applications including energy purchasing and generation, load switching, contract evaluation, and infrastructure development.

Accurate models for electric power load forecasting are essential to the operation and planning of a utility company. Load forecasting helps an electric utility to make important decisions including decisions on purchasing and generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. Load forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers,

ISOs, financial institutions, and other participants in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution, and markets.

Load forecasts can be divided into three categories:
  1. Factors for accurate forecasts 
  2. Weather influence
  3. Time factors

Weather Influence
Electric load has an obvious correlation to weather.  The most important variables  responsible in load changes are:
  • Dry and wet bulb temperature
  • Dew point
  • Humidity

Wind Speed / Wind Direction
  • Sky Cover
  • Sunshine
  • Time factors

In the forecasting model, we should also  consider time factors such as:
The day of the week
The hour of the day

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